Remember the book you read How does the world actually work

Many predictions are merely an extension of the trajectory of the past.

It is very easy to anticipate and imagine extreme circumstances. However, it is still challenging to anticipate a realistic future that results from inertial development and unforeseen interruption.

The reason why large and complex systems are maintained inertially is not only because of their scale of operation, but also because of the demand for basic energy and materials. The search for higher efficiency and optimized production processes is constantly influenced by the demand for energy and materials.

Even if we triple or even quadruple the recent rate of decarbonization, fossil carbon will still be the main energy source by 2050.

Microprocessors and mobile phones do not fall under the category of what is essential for existence. Crops must be sufficiently grown and processed, livestock must be fed, slaughtered, and enormous amounts of primary energy must be produced and converted, raw materials must be mined and transformed into suitable applications.

The scale must be able to meet the needs of billions of consumers and infrastructure must be able to produce and distribute non-fungible things.

The basics of our lives will not change much in the next 20 to 30 years. Steel and cement, ammonia, and plastic will still exist as the four pillars of material supporting civilization.

Key Takeaways from "How Does the World Actually Work":

• Inertia and Unforeseen Interruptions: While predicting extreme scenarios is easy, anticipating the future shaped by inertial development and unforeseen interruptions is challenging.
• Energy and Material Demand: Large, complex systems remain inertial due to their scale and the fundamental need for energy and materials, influencing efficiency and production optimization.
• Fossil Fuels Remain Dominant: Even with accelerated decarbonization, fossil carbon will remain the primary energy source in the near future, likely until 2050.
• Basic Needs Remain: The essentials of life, including food production, energy generation, and material production, will remain largely unchanged in the next 20-30 years.
• Civilization's Pillars: Steel, cement, ammonia, and plastics, as the four foundational materials, will continue to support civilization.
• Limited Impact of Technology: Technologies like microprocessors and mobile phones, while important, are not fundamental to basic existence and won't drastically alter the world's functioning in the near future.